October 31, 2022
Despite a weak stock market today, it looks like the Stock Markets will conclude another weekly gain. Is this the early beginning of a “Santa Claus” year end Holiday rally, or merely another short covering rally fueled by hopes that the Federal Reserve will start to “pivot” from its interest rate increases after their meeting this week?
We will find out later this week when the Fed announces their latest interest rate outlook. For my two cents I think that the Wall Street rumors that the Fed will ‘pivot’ because of the falling stock markets around the world has a strong smell of “wishful thinking.”
Another factor that has contributed to this rally during October is an increase in Corporate buy backs of a company’s stocks in the last quarter of 2022 to avoid the new 1% tax on those buy-backs to begin next year.
Inflation does not seem to be contained as food, and rental prices continue their steady climb, and the price of energy seems to be starting a winter spike with XOM ($110) showing record earnings and a record stock price.
If Russia follows thru on its threats to prevent Ukrainian grain shipments following drone attacks on Russian ships in the Black Sea area, can we expect increasing prices for Corn, Wheat and Soybeans?
In addition to the grains, I like the technical chart pictures for the Fertilizer Group: MOS ($53) and IPI ($44).
The economic situation in China continues to look very troubling.
As a final thought for the day, I have a hunch that the Banks that have supported Elon Musk’s takeover of TWTR are going to live to regret their backing of this ill fated maneuver. Also looks like many of the employees who built the platform, are going to get shafted in the next few days. Thanks Jack Dorsey and Elon Musk.
Be very careful if the price of Musk’s main asset, the price of TSLA, ever has a weekly close below $200/share.
Of course these are just my personal observations and are not investment recommendations. For those you need to do your own research and consult with your own personal advisors.
Once again I am reminded of that Warren Buffett wisdom:
“You never know who is swimming naked, until the tide starts going out.”